Project Status for the Gulf of Mexico (GOM)    

BACKGROUND

The Gulf of Mexico states have been included to the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since January 2005. The main purpose of the warning system is to enable local emergency management to act in response to warnings. To plan for the warning response, emergency managers must understand what specific areas within their jurisdictions are threatened by tsunamis. Potential tsunami sources for the GOM are local submarine landslides and earthquakes (induced co-seismic tsunami source) along the Caribbean plate boundary faults. However, preliminary modeling of potential tsunami sources outside the GOM has indicated a very low threat and may not pose a tsunami hazard to the GOM coastal communities or infrastructure. Nevertheless, recent assessments of tsunami hazards along the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) have identified underwater landslides as the primary potential source of tsunami generation. Although a massive underwater landslide in the GOM is considered a potential hazard, the probability of such an event is quite low. The probability of occurrence is related to large ancient landslides which were probably active prior to 7,000 years ago when large quantities of sediments were emptied into the GOM. However, nowadays sediments continue to empty into the GOM mainly from the Mississippi river. The sediment supply contributes to slope steepening and also to the increasing of the excess pore water pressure in the underlying soils, which may lead to further landslide activities. Recent evidence from seismic records of small-scale energetic seismic-waves in the GOM have confirmed that there is a probability of recurrence.

NTHMP-GOM Story

TAMUG-NTHMP Projects Summary: For a Safer Gulf of Mexico Coastline

MODELING AND MAPPING SUBCOMITTEE and WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS

      NTHMP Summer Meeting.  Seattle, PMEL 19-22 AUG/2014

GOM PPT Presentation

TECHNICAL REPORTS

PORT ARANSAS TX

Horrillo, J., Wood, A., Williams, C. Parambath, A. and Kim, Gyeong-Bo, 2011. Construction of tsunami inundation maps in the Gulf of Mexico, Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA09NWS4670006, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 86 p.

TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAPS GOM

Horrillo, J., Pampell-Manis, A., Sweetman, B., Sparagowski, C., Parambath, L. and Shigihara, Y. 2015. Construction of Five Additional Tsunami Inundation Maps and A Probabilistic Methodology for Hazard Assessment Generated by Submarine Landslides in the Gulf of Mexico. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA12NWS4670014 and NA13NWS4670018 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 217 p.

Juan J Horrillo,Wei Cheng, Alyssa Pampell-Manis, Jens Figlus, 2016. Implementing NTHMP-MMS Strategic Plan in tsunami hazard mitigation products for the Gulf of Mexico. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA14NWS4670049 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 61 p.

Juan J Horrillo,Wei Cheng, Jens Figlus, 2017. Development of Four Additional Tsunami Inundation Maps with Revision of Port Aransas, TX and Updating Existing Ones with Maritime Products. Tech. Rep. Award Numbers: NA15NWS4670031 and NA16NWS4670039 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 229 p.

Juan J Horrillo,Wei Cheng, Jens Figlus, Rozita Kian 2018. Development of two tsunami inundation maps in the GOM and inclusion of the USGS’ Yucatan landslide tsunami sources. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA17NWS4670015 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 165 p. 

Juan J Horrillo,Wei Cheng, Jens Figlus, Williams Knight 2019. Development of two tsunami inundation maps in the GOM and inclusion of the Meteotsunami characterization for Panama City, FL. . Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA18NWS4670078 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 123 p. 

Juan J Horrillo, Wei Cheng, Richards Sunny, Alwin Jose, Yuchen Shang, 2020. Development of two tsunami inundation maps and continuation of the meteotsunami characterization for the GOM. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA19NWS4670015 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 133 p. 

Juan J Horrillo, Wei Cheng, Richards Sunny, Alwin Jose, Yuchen Shang, 2021. Development of two tsunami inundation maps and continuation of the meteotsunami characterization for the GOM. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA20NWS4670066 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 135 p. 

Juan J Horrillo, Wei Cheng, Alwin Jose, Yuchen Shang, 2022. Tsunami Inundation Maps Development and Continuation of the Meteotsunami Characterization for the GOM. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA21NWS4670012 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 181 p. <NEW>

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Tsunami Inundation Map Products

  1. South Padre Island TX inundation, current, vorticity, momentum flux
  2. Mustang Island TX 
  3. Galveston TX, current, vorticity, momentum flux
  4. Mobile, Al
  5. Pensacola, FL inundation, current, vorticity, momentum flux 
  6. Santa Rosa County FL 
  7. Okaloosa County FL
  8. Panama City FL inundation, current, vorticity, momentum flux
  9. Tampa FL
  10. Key West FL inundation, current, vorticity, momentum flux 
  11. Osprey-Venice-Englewood, FL
  12. Sanibel Island-Naples, FL
  13. Grand Isle, LA  inundation, current, vorticity, momentum flux
  14. Freeport, TX
  15. Jamaica Beach, TX, current, vorticity, momentum flux 
  16. South Tampa, FL
  17. Don Pedro Island-Boca Grande-Captiva Island, FL
  18. Marco Island inundation, current, vorticity, momentum flux <NEW>

UNDER DEVELOPMENT

West of Pensacola, FL (Gulf Shore, Orange Beach, and Perdido key) and Mexico beach, FL

 

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Publications Supported by NTHMP-NWS-NOAA    

Alyssa Pampell-Manis, Juan Horrillo & Jens Figlus, 2016. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast. Ocean Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s10236-016-0966-7

L´opez, A., Horrillo, J., Hu´erfano, V., Mercado, A. and Pampell A., 2014. Advanced Tsunami Numerical Simulations of The Puerto Rico October 11, 1918 Mona Passage Tsunami. Pure Appl. Geophys., DOI 10.1007/s00024-014-0988-3

Horrillo, J., Grilli S.T, Nicolsky, D., Roeber V. and Zhang J., 2014. Performance Benchmarking Tsunami Models for NTHMPs Inundation Mapping Activities Pure Appl. Geophys., 2014 Springer Basel, DOI 10.1007/s00024-014-0891-y

Horrillo, J., Wood, A., Kim, Gyeong-Bo and Parambath, A., 2013. A Simplified 3-D Navier-Stokes Numerical Model for Landslide-Tsunami: Application to the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 118, 6934-6950, doi:10.1002/2012JC008689

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